Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2026 | Office Hours
The headlines say “commercial real estate is cooling”—but the data tells a different story. According to Deloitte’s 2026 Outlook, most investors still expect to increase their CRE exposure over the next 12–18 months. Why? Because in uncertain times, hard assets win.
While lending markets tighten and capital availability rises to the top of investors’ concern lists, some sectors are quietly outperforming expectations. Flex space, logistics, and data centers are gaining traction, while even the much-maligned office and retail categories are showing early signs of recovery. The “flight to quality” is real—but it’s not just about trophy assets anymore; it’s about smart underwriting, adaptive reuse, and mixed-use evolution.
In this week’s breakdown, we’ll unpack:
Why capital constraints might actually create your next best opportunity
How shifting rate expectations could reignite development pipelines
The surprising resilience of retail—and how failing malls might become the next great redevelopment play
If you’re preparing for 2026, now’s the time to think beyond today’s rates and position for the rebound.
Join our underwriting challenge to get all the tools, resources, and coaching on underwriting your deals: 30 Deals, 30 Days starting on October 22nd, 2025 - https://crecentral.com/30deals30days
Key Takeaways:
Market Sentiment & Outlook:
Commercial real estate is facing uncertainty into 2026, primarily due to macroeconomic volatility, interest rates, and capital availability.
While capital was readily available previously, concern about raising funds or qualifying for loans is now considered the top risk by industry leaders.
Most investors still expect to increase real estate holdings to hedge against inflation and diversify portfolios.
Sector Performance & Trends:
Some sectors like digital economy properties (i.e., data centers), logistics, warehousing, and industrial are performing well and attracting attention.
Office investments are regaining traction, contrary to recent trends suggesting office decline.
The hotel sector has struggled, with deal value down significantly year-over-year.
Retail, especially malls, continues to be challenged, with shifting consumer behavior and design shortcomings cited as reasons.
Development Climate:
Rising construction costs, interest rates, and property taxes are obstacles for developers.
Flex space development continues where supply is low.
Affordable, "missing middle" housing and zoning reform are needed to address shortages and promote multi-use developments.
Investment Strategy:
Investors are more cautious, screening deals more carefully and not as aggressive as previous years.
Preference for acquiring properties to hedge against inflation and for portfolio diversification.
U.S. remains a preferred market, but interest in other countries (India, Germany, UK, Singapore) is rising, especially among larger firms.
Audience/Participant Concerns:
Questions targeted real estate taxes, staffing, capital raising, and partnership selection.
Equity/capital raising remains a perennial challenge, given market dynamics and investor situations.
Mixed-Use Development Advocacy:
Strong views were expressed favoring conversion of single-use malls into mixed-use, live-work-play communities to revitalize retail real estate.
Get commercial real estate coaching, courses, and community to jumpstart your investment journey over at CRE Central: www.crecentral.com
About Your Host:
Tyler Cauble, Founder & President of The Cauble Group, is a commercial real estate broker and investor based in East Nashville. He’s the best selling author of Open for Business: The Insider’s Guide to Leasing Commercial Real Estate and has focused his career on serving commercial real estate investors.
Episode Transcript:
Tyler Cauble 0:00
Tyler Cauble 0:00
This episode of the commercial real estate investor podcast is brought to you by my cre accelerator mastermind, where you'll get access to my step by step investment blueprint, essentially a library of resources on how to invest in commercial real estate. You'll get connected to a supportive community of other commercial real estate investors that are doing projects just like you. You'll get personalized coaching and feedback from me every step of the way. Go to www.crecentral.com to learn more. How is commercial real estate going to perform in 2026 which two asset classes are actually performing pretty well, maybe even outperforming other sectors of commercial real estate. That might surprise you. All that and more. On today's episode of office hours, welcome back to the commercial real estate investor podcast. My name is Tyler Cobble. I'm your host, and on office hours, we dive into your questions. We dive into my thoughts in the market, the latest news, whatever's going on in the world of commercial real estate so that you can be a more educated and prepared commercial real estate investor. We've got a good show lined up for you all today. Excited to be diving into deloitte's 2026 commercial real estate outlook. There's some interesting aspects of that that if you don't read these reports, highly recommend you check them out, that I think you might find surprising for how commercial real estate investors and developers are viewing the outlook for 2026 we've got an article today from CNBC on how commercial real estate deals might be slowing, but there's a couple of sectors that are actually shining right now. Very important that you know what those sectors are, so that you can be very intentional about where you are placing, your capital, your time, your effort in today's market. Catching you guys up today, this afternoon will be day 21 of 30 deals. 30 days. I can't believe we've already recorded 20 episodes in a row, live almost every single day. I've had to catch up on a couple of them. If you haven't caught that series, we have a playlist under I think it's just 30 deals, 30 days on my YouTube channel. Highly recommend you go and check that out. That's not something that we can release on the podcast, simply because it is very visual. But I am underwriting a deal every single day, either that somebody who has joined the challenge, submitted in the 30 deals, 30 days chat, or that a friend of mine has found we had Chris in the studio here earlier. I'm going to have Logan Freeman in the office next week. Well, virtually, that is and then, you know, of course, finding some of our own deals. I did an autopsy of my first deal. I went back and walked you through that underwriting. I think that was day 14, maybe. So it's been really interesting. We've underwritten all different kinds of commercial real estate. Highly recommend that you guys go and check that out. And that's something that I pretty much do on a daily basis anyway, because we're always looking at deals. The more that you're underwriting, the more you're going through that process, the more you will get accustomed to how it works, and the faster you will be able to analyze these deals. I mean, we can, I can, pretty much within the first five minutes, know whether or not a deal is going to be worth anything. All right, let's get to somebody else questions before we dive into Deloitte outlook. Kimberly, how you doing? Kimberly's in the brokers mastermind. Good to see you here. She's saying, I think we will see more inventory. Oh, I forgot to tell you guys the question of the day. It's, How do you think commercial real estate will perform in 2026 Kimberly saying, I think we will see more inventory. And if interest rates hold, it looks good. I like that. The combination of higher inventory and better interest rates actually makes it substantially easier, not just on brokers, but also on investors. You have more options to choose from, and you know, it becomes more of a buyer's market than a seller's market. So probably a better time to be buying in 26 than selling. That's for sure. Spyro is saying morning. Tyler just wanted to say, thanks for all the content recently, the 30 deals, 30 days especially, I'm a college student, and it has been really helpful to learn. Have to jump off soon for class. Spyro, thanks for being here, man, hopefully you're kicking ass in class. Really glad to hear that you're enjoying the content. It's a lot of fun. Maybe we'll have to do another challenge like this at some point, although I will say it's kind of exhausting live streaming every day for 45 minutes to an hour, but I've really enjoyed it like we've I've never done that before, so, you know, I thought it was kind of an interesting experiment to just try. Captain Kurt, what's going on, dude, hope you're doing well. Saying, Do you think commercial development will pick back up with interest rates trending down. I think, I think it will, I think that commercial real estate development will certainly be more attractive for develop developers as interest rates come down. You know, the problem that developers have had is that, you know, basically September of 2022, interest rates. Started really going up. Construction costs started really going up, both material and labor. And rents kind of stayed the same, right? I mean, it was relatively flat growth. If anything, we saw negative rent growth in some markets. And so when you have all of that most developers their capital partners. And actually that's part of what we're going to be talking about with Deloitte, so you're very prescient. Kurt, you know, capital doesn't want to put money into it. They don't want to take the risk. Now, what I will say is, if you are the one guy that's building a 300 unit apartment complex today, you'll be the one person that's going through a brand new lease up in two years, right? There's not a lot of that development going on, but it's always really, really difficult to convince banks to give you good terms on that, because usually the terms aren't great. To convince your capital partners to give you the equity, because typically they're they're kind of wanting to hold their purse back. So I think that it will definitely pick up. Now, different aspects of commercial real estate development are still rolling like, I mean flex space, ground up flex space, it's relatively cheap anyway. I still have clients that are full speed ahead on those developments. They haven't slowed down. Yes, construction costs have come up, but you have a market there that doesn't have enough supply, so if you have to raise your rents by 50 cents a square foot, it's kind of a marginal difference. So interesting to keep that in mind. Kvg is saying, Good morning. Glad you are here. Kvg, I'm glad you are here. Thanks for jumping in. My friend Kevin Pino is saying, Hey, Tyler, truly appreciate the fact that you're able to keep up with office hours and still do 30 deals in 30 days. I appreciate that. You appreciate that, Kevin. It's, you know, I was looking at my schedule today because I'm actually headed to Mexico tomorrow for a wedding, so I've been cramming everything in, and we will still be live streaming from Mexico, by the way, for 30 deals, 30 days. I'm not going to let you guys down. And my, you know, I was looking I don't know that I have like, a free 30 minutes today, up until probably 7pm and I've been at it since seven this morning. So, you know, I love it. I'm, I'm really happy to get to do what I do. I absolutely love my job, if you can call it that, I just get to nerd out on commercial real estate all day. KBG saying I see investors shifting back to that stance slightly after meta earnings, along with some companies that have been laying off people. Could this be happening to companies that have these retail space spaces, and they're just sizing down their properties to buy them at a better rate, leaving properties to never come back. Possibly, I understand people who got walked in these retail spots at bad deals or bad rates will benefit from rates dropping because they could refinance, and people who did not get a chance to buy retail spots will get better rates. If this is the case, why would every big corporation like H and M be leaving malls in bulk if they have the capital to withstand the storm? Well, kvg, I think that's a good question. I don't know that those brands have the capital to withstand the storm. I think that that's why you're seeing a lot of that also, most of those big retailers don't own their own commercial real estate, so we're kind of talking apples and oranges here, and I'm actually doing a video on this that we'll hopefully be releasing here in the next month or month and a half, on why some brands buy their real estate and why others lease because both strategies work really well, but there's a, there's a pretty big difference in approach. For those types of businesses, I'm 99% sure that H M doesn't own like anything. So for them, it's more of a business issue, right? I mean, when you are, I mean, they're, they're from Europe, and most of their clothing is manufactured, in, I'm pretty sure, in Asia. So when you have tariffs go up like crazy on, you know, foreign companies, foreign made goods, companies like H and M that were already, you know, not super, doing super well. I mean, they kind of had, you know, past their peak a few years ago. They're struggling, right? And so trying to figure out how they can be profitable with as many stores, with, you know, competing with online, competing with all these other boutique retailers. That's probably what they're doing. Man, is they're probably just pulling back, trying to figure out how to be very conscientious about their new approach, right? Tommy's saying, how do we determine real estate taxes when modeling a deal, real estate taxes tend to be one of the most expensive costs that can make or break our model. So how do we determine the value accurately? Super easy, Tommy. So you go to, you
Tyler Cauble 9:55
know, whoever's levying your taxes, like for me, it'd be Davidson County, and. Um, and you would just type in Davidson County millage rate, and then you would multiply that by the purchase price. They make it they make it super easy on you. Now you'll have to go municipality by municipality to figure out when they are going to assess the new rate. Sometimes they only reassess every four years, despite what you pay for it. Sometimes they reassess it immediately. So that's what I would do, is I would just go in and look up the millage rate. That is the rate at which you are taxed for property taxes. Kevin is saying, can't speak for the US market, but the Caribbean construction cost has definitely shot up. The demand for residential is through the roof, but the rents are just unattainable, exactly. Yeah, I mean, that's the that's the crazy thing about it, is that you have the demand, you have the demand, but you can't even remotely touch the supply, because what we are able to supply today is too expensive for what the demand is. So how do we solve that? How do we create actually attainable and affordable housing in today's market, and that takes municipalities going through complete zoning changes. We need higher density. We need cottage style developments. We need more townhouses. We need more, you know, lofts and apartments. We need more accessible and differentiated housing, right? Kevin, I can't say, You know what it's like in the Caribbean, but where I am in Nashville, you basically have a handful of choices. You can have a single family home, a townhouse, a condo. I mean, it's kind of that like and I would probably lump apartments under condos, right? But there's so they call it the missing middle. When it comes to commercial real estate zoning, there's this missing middle, where it's like, look back in the 60s, 70s, 80s, people used to build duplexes, triplexes, quad plexes all the time. You know, in Kansas City, they have what they call the KC six shooter, which is a, it's a really cool, like, it looks like a house, but it has six apartments in it. It's three stories, two apartments per floor. I got that one from Logan. I don't know if it's like officially called the Kansas City six shooter, but I think that's a really cool name, and I love the idea of what it is. And so we don't have that in most of our cities, and that is why we have an affordable housing crisis. Because if you have to build a single family home on a one acre lot, because that's all it's zoned for, and tell you, on a one acre watt, you could easily build 1015, 20 units more, depending on how you wanted to actually design it. So it's it's really tough to figure it out privately. You have to get into it with the public market. All right, let's dive into this 2026, commercial real estate outlook from Deloitte, because I think you guys Deloitte, because I think you guys are going to really enjoy some of what they are talking about in here. So they're saying macroeconomic volatility and policy uncertainty may put the commercial real estate industry recovery on pause, but not for good. Let's see. Do the trade and regulatory uncertainties have complicated decision making, prompting some leaders in cre to rethink their approach. Opportunities for growth likely exist for those who understand the industry's geographic asset and macro level nuances, you got to also remain agile and forward thinking. I think that's the biggest thing is, how do you maintain your creative thinking as you are going through all of this? All right, so if we are navigating a pause in recovery, their survey respondents are saying that they expect their revenues and expenses to change for the coming 12 to 18 months. So slight pullback in optimism from 2025 83% of respondents expect their revenues to improve by the end of the year, compared with 88% last year. So last year, people were more positive about revenues being able to increase. But we're talking 5% you know? I mean, that could just be a statistical anomaly. To be fair, it depends on if they've just got more people to to actually take the survey this year. 68% anticipate higher expenses this year, and that's not difficult to see. I mean, in Nashville, like we just underwent a massive property tax increase, you know, we're only starting to see more and more extreme weather events that are causing all sorts of issues, not only on the coast anymore. I mean, look at what happened in Asheville, right? I mean, you saw this hurricane come inland that caused so much rain and destruction on an inland city that now you have insurance companies that are looking at this going, Okay, well, these extreme weather events are no longer just impacting the coast, coastal cities. So maybe we're not just raising all of our insurance rates on the coast. It's going to be across the whole damn country, right, which, you know, maybe makes it easier to invest on the coast, but it's going to make insurance costs go up forever. Buddy, and at a certain point you've got to sit there and go, is it worth is it worth insuring my property? Now, if you don't have a lender, you don't have to do that. If you are going through the traditional bank, they're going to require you to have insurance. But there are alternatives out there. You could self insure. You know, you could join these, these like different kinds of groups. I've got one buddy who's actually going out. He's not insuring his whole property through one group. He's insuring his roof, he's insuring the structural components of the building. He's insuring the interiors. He's insuring the exteriors. He's breaking it all up into different companies so that he can try and get better rates, which makes a lot of sense. So despite a slight dip sentiments from 2026 survey respondents, remains optimistic, slight dip from 2025 but when you compare this to 22 Well, I mean, aside from revenue expectations, when you compare it to 2223 and 24 outlook is substantially better. It was pretty abysmal in 23 and 24 I felt pretty good going into 25 and you know, as the year has gone on, I've kind of gotten a little, you know, from a macro level. I mean, we're still buying commercial real estate deals. We're still finding tons of opportunities. That's the interesting thing about it. But, you know, hey, interest rates are different. We have to underwrite these deals a little bit differently. Now, this figure, I thought was pretty interesting if you're if you're watching on YouTube, you could tell this is lending markets and interest rates were of top concern surveyed from the surveyed commercial real estate leaders for 2026 this is comparing a ranking, a global ranking of what was most what they thought was posed the greatest risk of negative impacts to the company's financial performance in the next 12 to 18 months. Now look at number one in 2025 those elevated interest rates went down to number two in 2026 but look at number six and 25 which became number one. Capital availability, people felt pretty secure about being able to find money. You know, you've heard people talking about this dry powder that has been sitting on the sidelines forever, right? I mean, we're all sick of hearing the term dry powder. That's what that is referencing, right there. You know, last year, everybody felt like there was a lot of dry powder on the sidelines. Now that's the number one, number one risk that these commercial real estate investors are seeing as the for a negative impact to their company's financial performance, meaning they feel like they're not going to be able to raise capital or qualify for bank loans. Of course, cost of capital came up a little bit. Currency, volunteer volatility, which was not a thing last year, is now number four. We have changes in tax policies, which actually came down from three. So you know, not as not as big, cyber risk is down. Regional political instability is down. That's probably because we've, you know, despite the political instability that is 100% going on, no matter which side you are on, you cannot argue with that. I think that we all kind of at least have an idea of what the chaos is going to be, right? You know, it's like my track coach when I was in middle school. He called track meets organized chaos. That's kind of what I feel like politics in the US is right now. But, I mean, that's of concern, like, right? You don't know. I mean, if another tariff gets instituted tomorrow, how that could impact a specific sector of commercial real estate? Because it will, right? I mean, we were just talking about H M and their closures. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if tariffs had an impact on that which is now causing them to close stores, which will impact landlords, right? Employee retention has gone up from number 12 in 2025 to number eight. That's one of the bigger jumps that is not in the top five. So, you know, there was a, there was a time where everybody kind of felt like, oh, there's, there's, there are too many people in commercial real estate. We don't need to make any hires. And now people are starting to get worried about retaining good talent. So interesting to see. Those are some of the pieces that I saw that stood out on that graph, that I thought were pretty interesting, that I wanted to share with you guys. Let's see what else we've got going on here. Nearly 75% of respondents expect to increase their real estate investment, mostly to hedge inflation and diversify portfolios. So that's saying three out of four individuals expect to buy more commercial real estate because they expect the the US dollar to be worth less, which means you need to own hard assets, right? When, when we get into economic uncertainty, people start to buy gold, right? It's the exact same reason that they're buying a hard asset. That's the exact same reason why a lot of investors buy commercial real estate. It is a hard, tangible asset that you buy it for $100,000
Tyler Cauble 19:53
today, even if you know the dollar gets devalued or inflation kicks in, whatever, which I mean is really the dollar getting devalued. Tell you, then you know that building is going to just go up to being worth $200,000 without you having to do anything, right? But your loan is still going to be at $75,000 so you know it's it starts to really make sense if you're hedging against potential inflation increases, all right, how does your company expect to change its level of investment in real estate. So 16% said increase significantly, I would fall under the increase slightly, which is 58% of the vote. We plan on acquiring another, probably three to four properties in the next 12 to 18 months. You know, we used to it might end up being two to three. We used to acquire four or five every single year, and it just it got to a point where it's like, you know what I don't think now is the time to be getting aggressive on deals. We really need to take our time make sure that we're getting into the right deals, and approach it from there. So we're still looking at as many deals as we were before. We're just not moving we're not excited about a lot of them. What is the greatest reason why your company is looking to increase? 34% said hedge against potential inflation. That's pretty wild. 26% said diversification with other held financial asset types. So that means maybe you're investing in stocks, bonds or or even multifamily and you want to go buy industrial, right? You're just diversifying your portfolio. 15% said returns are more stable than other financial asset types. 13% said potential tax benefits. The United States remains a top investment market for 2026 but investors are also looking elsewhere, I think that that's pretty interesting. You know, it talks a little bit about the Asia Pacific. Top targets for survey respondents include India, Germany, the United Kingdom and Singapore. Now, one thing that I do want to mention with this report that I think is important to keep in context for us, right? Because we are a different breed of commercial real estate investor. Most of us are mom and pops. Maybe we've got some teams of, you know, four to five to 10. We are not your your private equity firms. You know, we're not REITs. I mean, a lot of who they are surveying for this are some of the biggest companies in the world, right? And so I doubt that, you know, my neighbor, John, who buys buildings, is going to look at Germany just because of what's going on the United States, right? But it is interesting to see kind of how people are thinking about it from a macro, you know level at that point, right? 16% of respondents still preferred the United States. Let's look at this top theory markets, India was 13% I mean India, substantially higher than investing in Canada, Mexico, Japan, UK, Singapore, Germany. It's kind of interesting, right? I mean, I wonder what's going on in India that would cause that. Let's see digital economy properties retake the top spot while offices steadily gain traction. So they're saying digital economy I mean, digital economy properties. I'm actually not even remotely aware of what a digital economy, okay, data centers. Why not just call them data Why would you call them digital economy? That's and sometimes people just come up with weird names for things. Okay, so digital economy apparently means data centers. So let's just call that data centers, followed by logistics and warehousing, followed by industrial and manufacturing, then multifamily, then office. Wait, they're saying office and multifamily are above retail. That's amazing. Single Family rentals are above retail. I couldn't disagree more. Now they're probably talking about retail at scale, which is not the type of retail that I do. I'm not going to go and buy, you know, the Green Hills Mall. I think that that's a, probably not a good investment. But you know, when we're talking about neighborhood strip centers, I would put a three tenant strip center over multi family every day, like we're able to get better returns. I've got clients that are getting better returns on all of their investments when they do that. So I'm sure, of course, you have to keep in mind what scale that we are getting to as we're talking about this self storage is toward towards the bottom. See that also doesn't make any sense to me, because self storage, I mean, we're doing a deal right now that is going to net us $30,000 a month. Net, $30,000 a month from 350 units. So, you know, I'm sure, again, we're talking about at scale. We're talking about 1000s of units here. You know, maybe at that. Point, it starts to, it starts to get a little funky. So, you know, who knows? All right, let's, let's move on. You guys can always dive into that. To yourselves. This one is from CNBC, talking about how commercial real estate deals are slowing, but these two beleaguered sectors are shining. So let's see what they're talking about. Commercial real estate deal making is having a rough 2025 I also like, let's caveat that with our sales are barely down year over year, so it's not rough. I'm sure, if you're a CBRE and you deal with mostly institutional capital buyers and massive transactions. Yeah, that's probably taking a pretty big hit, but boutique, commercial real estate investments have been relatively steady. I mean, they're not as great as they were like 2022 was substantially better, like by far, but it's not, it's not like it was. Let's see, the overall value of deals has grown just 5% from last year as of the third quarter. Oh no, we've only had a 5% year over year increase. Look if, if you consistently got 5% increases per year after 10 years, I mean, your property's value is going to double in what 10 years, without you having to actually do anything. So I would be totally fine with getting 5% year over year. In fact, we underwrite 3% so that's kind of funny. So keep all of that in mind. Trends in September reveal several themes, flight to quality, economic uncertainty hitting the hotel sector hard, and a growing interest in office and retail. Interesting because we were just talking about how bad retail is, apparently, for all of these other commercial real estate investors, let's see. Flight to quality can be seen in the average dollar size of sales up to $12.7 million compared with the average of $11.2 million over the two years prior. It is a pretty substantial job. I mean, we're talking about a 10% increase in the average sales price. Let's see. We had a lot of volume of growth recovery after the first Fed rate hikes in 2223 2024 was a pretty good year, said Kevin Fagan, head of cre capital markets research at Moody's, we saw a significant volume expansion. Fagan noted that there is much more certainty among investors in higher quality properties. I think that makes a lot of sense. One glaring weakness is the hotel sector, which is always great to hear when you're about to deliver a hotel right with deal value down 30% in September compared with the same month in 2024 that was the only asset class to post a significant decline last month. Likely do it due to a drop in international and business travel. Yeah. I mean, let's be fair, the government's been shut down. Air Traffic Control has been a mess, all that stuff. Fortunately Nashville, I mean, you know, this is obviously a personal anecdote and an aside, but Nashville has so many people that just drive in as well that it is not fully dependent on international now, I will say we get a lot of Canadian and European tourists in Nashville, and so that has hurt. But, I mean, we go down to Broadway for predators games, and it's still packed. So tourism is still alive and well in Nashville, while hospitality took a hit office notch to win in September, Apple spent $365 million on an office property portfolio in Sunnyvale, California. I wonder how much of a discount that was from what it probably would have gone for 10 years ago, maybe even five. Nvidia spent $83 million on a single office building in Santa Clara MetLife got a roughly 39% discount deal on an office property in Newport Beach. They're all buying office buildings again. Remember everybody said, Oh, office is dead. Nobody's ever gonna go back now, you're having all these companies tell their workers are coming back into the into the office, the total returns are good. You're buying it far less than replacement costs. So you put it all together, and it's a very resilient essential real estate need where we can make strong, risk adjusted returns. I agree. I like Office for the right opportunity. It makes a whole lot of sense for you to be jumping in on that type of asset class, right? So let's see here. We got a couple more comments. Kvg, that's that's a lot, man, I'm not gonna be able to get to that today. If you can take those comments and drop them in as like, a permanent comment underneath, I'll be sure to get back with you. My friend em is saying, Good morning. Don't forget to like. Yeah, come on, guys, if you're enjoying it, don't forget to like and subscribe, share it with a friend, send to them and say, Look, 20 commercial real estate's gonna be fine in 2026
Tyler Cauble 29:49
John is saying, How much does this program cost? They've been wholesaling for a year, and do 100k a month with me and one other closer, John, I will say this, it's less than a million dollars to join my mastermind. So if you're interested, give us a call. I don't share the pricing anymore. I mean, it's, it's not a secret, like we tell it to you when we get on the call. I made, I made a big mistake earlier this year where I said what the price was back in like, February or March, and then we had a price increase in May, and I had some dude legitimately get so upset with me that we raised our prices, that he ended up paying for it, and then called me a week later and backed out. I was like, Okay, well, like, lesson learned. You know, unfortunately, when I put something out in the podcast, it's, it's, some people are just going to take that as the end all be all we raise our prices when we increase our offering. So it is what it does. Kevin is saying, Tyler, how is that hotel development you've been working on coming along? Last I heard you were close to opening. We are on the one inch line. I wouldn't even say the one yard line at this point. I mean, all the rooms are ready. The main house still has a couple of items, really, just the lighting, like the fixtures in the space, we're being very picky about those. So, you know, unfortunately, I can't get my fire inspection until that is all fully done, but we want to make sure that we do it right. So that's the biggest thing. So we're close, man, I've got my staff partially hired. We're really excited for it. I mean, it looks absolutely gorgeous. Racing is saying, What's your biggest challenge right now when it comes to commercial real estate? That's a good question. Brayson, I mean, I would say, like this, this, to me, is always my challenge. It's just raising equity, raising capital like and it's and it's not because, like, we have a problem doing it. It's just that I don't like doing it. I mean, I've got some great investors. We raised a lot of capital for our deals. I mean, we just closed out a deal in August where we raised about four and a half million dollars in equity from a lot of you guys here on YouTube and the podcast, actually. So if you guys ever want to invest with me, that door is open, you know, we, I don't know, just going through it like it's easy for me to find deals, it's easy for me to underwrite deals, it's easy for me to put together the narrative. You know, banks can be tough too, just because, you know, we're more creative. So like convincing a bank that they should think a little bit outside of the box can be interesting, but it's just capital, and it's not even necessarily convincing investors to go along with the journey, because they've all signed up to invest with me because of the way that we invest. It's, you know, hitting everybody at the right time. You know, somebody will say, hey, I'll commit $100,000 or $50,000 or $500,000 and then, you know, their kid gets in a car wreck, and they've got to buy a car, right, or something like that, right? I mean, stuff just happens. Life happens. So it's all that kind of stuff John is saying. I'll call you guys, no worries. I don't get upset about the pricing. Well, John, I appreciate that, man. If you book a call this week, by the way, I am the one taking those calls, so you are more than welcome to do that. I will be the one that is handling the call. Jam is saying permits are so bittersweet. In there keeps things safe, but can be a pain. Yeah, I mean, I get it, you know, I get all the inspections. We want to make sure that it's all done right. But damn is it? Is it a process sometimes, and just making sure you get all of the little details right. So racing is saying, so you need to get more qualified investors. Is that right? I mean, I've got several 1000 people on our list, so we actually end up closing out our qualified investors pretty quickly. I mean, look, we're always looking to add qualified investors to our list, you know? I mean, I think anybody that wants to, anybody that does what we do, right? You guys are probably always looking for new investors, because, you know, you just never know, especially if you're doing three to four deals a year, you're going to tap out some of your investors. It's important to continually be adding to that, right? So, yeah, I mean, I would say, yeah, that's, that's something that we're always going to do. Kevin, oh, cool. Do you put staff expenses in your underwriting too? Don't think we ever touched on that. No, I don't. I mean, I actually have a pretty light staff. I mean, right now it's, it's me. I used, I got to a point where I had 11 employees in the firm, and I realized we weren't doing any better with that at all. And so, yeah. I mean, of course, am I having to work on the deals a bit more, sure? But we can also outsource some of that stuff. We can send it to contractors. Like, yes, in a way, it's in the underwriting, right? Like, instead of having, you know, my team work more on design and selections, we just pay, you know, our architecture team to do that. Instead, I used to really want to be hands on with everything, and now, you know, I just come up with with all of the ideas for the direction, and then they handle everything. So Conan is saying, moving forward in your career, do you plan on using most if not? All of your own capital in terms of financing, absolutely not. I would prefer to never use any of my own capital. I mean, we Syndicate, right? So I'm raising capital from investors going out and doing these deals. Now I place the minimum, the minimum investment alongside so if our minimum investment a deal is 50 or $100,000 then, yeah, I mean, I'm putting 50 or $100,000 into it. I will buy one off buildings here and there. I mean, this year, I've been doing this for seven years now. This is the first year that I've ever bought properties by myself. I've always had partners. That doesn't necessarily mean that I syndicated, but I've always had partners. There were strategic reasons for that. I mean, I'd rather have a slice of a watermelon than a whole grape. And being able to go out with other partners that had a different reach to different investors or different experiences that made the winner, you know, give us better terms on our notes, was so worth it. So to me, yeah. I mean, I think at some point, you know, I'll want to look if I had $100 million in cash, I would never have a partner again, right? But I'm working on this just like you guys are. KBG, Singh, I have no idea how to pin a comment, so. KBG, once this video is done, there will be regular comments under the YouTube video, and that's where you'll be able to do that saying. So the question, in short terms, is, won't the decline in the mall ecosystem worsen the US economy? So does that mean malls will never leave, or it could be like the blockbuster stores eventually? No. I mean, I don't think that that's gonna have like. I don't think that malls alone could worsen the US economy. I think that the reason that malls are dying is because we have alternative economic pathways for people to buy their goods, find their goods, whatever, and malls don't function in the way that people shop anymore, right? People are buying online a lot. So, you know, it's it's just to me, like malls deserve to die, I think that they do, and we can have a long discussion about that they were built wrong from the very beginning, they were not designed right whatsoever. I mean, whoever came up with the idea for the for the suburban mall, you know, should forever live, or maybe they're dead by now, in infamy, horrific plan, because you have a sea of parking lot surrounding a giant building. So it's not pedestrian friendly, it's, it's it's not designed well, and it's all retail. So it's a destination like you have to go out of your way to get to this thing. If malls were designed the exact same way, but with parking garages out parcels and multifamily apartments above, not a single one would be struggling right now. So food for thought, Kevin is saying, Oh no, I meant hotel staff. Oh yeah, absolutely. I mean, when you're underwriting a hotel, you've got to take into account all of your operating expenses when you go down. Kimberly, saying, Tyler, are you ready to talk about the triple net offering that I saw? It's still grayed out, but I saw it there in the portal. Kimberly, I'm not sure which one you're talking about, but I will text you as soon as I get off here and we could talk about it. Conan is saying, Did you pick partners depending on the project type, and have you ever gone to institutional sources for financing? Yes, I was very specific on the partners that I picked because, like, for example, on my hotel deal, I never did a hotel. I wanted everybody to feel really good about me doing a hotel. And I went and I went and grabbed a partner that had 30 years of experience in the hotel world, right? So very intentional there. As far as institutional sources for financing, like, yes, we have gotten bank loans from pretty big banks. If you're saying more on the equity side, absolutely not. I have no interest in working for somebody else. And that's pretty much what it becomes if another group is going to come in and write the whole check, bracing is saying. So if you could wave a magic wand and have that building equity problem solved, what would that look like? It's always, is it always more business relationships private investors, better deals with banks? No. I mean, it's just, you know,
Tyler Cauble 39:20
equity problem solved. I don't know. I mean to me, what it would look like is I just send out an email to all my investors. Nobody has to hop on a phone call with me and they give me the money. Jim is saying it's not too late to do that to most. Yeah, I agree. I agree. It is not too late at all. In fact, there are developers that are doing that. Look up one Bellevue place in Nashville that is headed in the right direction of what it should be, in my opinion, not dense enough. Needs parking garages. Needs more multifamily units. But I completely agree. I mean, I think, look, if you, if you take, you know, these shopping malls. I mean, let me just pull one up so you guys can actually see Cool Springs, Galleria. This one is an absolute. A mess when it comes to how big the parking lot is. Now, let's turn it on a satellite. So this is, this is down, and, you know, Franklin brenwood area. We'll get that. I mean, sea of parking lot. It's just absolutely horrific. Now, this is like two or three stories, maybe, imagine if this was five stories, and it had a hotel, it had, you know, maybe a convention center, it had apartments or condos, you you took, you know, maybe a portion right here, turn this into a massive parking deck, and built, you know, more above it, and then started doing little out parcels all around it, you know, adding some green space and walkability and parks. Then it's not just a mall where you just go shop for things, it's actually a community that you want to live, work and play in, right? I mean, as it sits right now, of course, malls are doing bad. I mean, it's just these parking spots are never used. It's just a waste of space. So, yeah, I have, I have some. I'm very opinionated on the shopping mall. KBG, Singh, but what about all these tariffs that are being forced on most companies because they don't have products made of the USA? Does that not affect the PnL of companies who upcharge in person? Yeah, I mean, that's that's what I said earlier, right? I mean, the tariffs are impacting these companies PNLs, and that's why they're having to shut down some stores. So wouldn't all of these other amenities raise the least price of people who want a storefront? Yeah, it definitely could, but you would now have 1000 or 2000 people that live on site. I mean, look at, look at pretty much anywhere that's walkable or that has been converted walkable, all the prices have gone up, but it's sustainable, because you now have more people that can actually afford or that actually are there, and they're spending more money there. So yeah, I mean, the price is, like, that's a good thing. You want to be able to raise the prices, right? I mean, right now they have stores closing because there's not enough demand from shoppers there. But if you converted it into something that's live, work, play. You would never have that issue, because you would have a built in clientele that could grab breakfast there, grab lunch there, have an office there, whatever Kevin is seeing. My last comment here, my birthday is November 19, and underwriting my Barbados deal on day 29 would be an awesome birthday gift. We'll send those details so you can have a look, Kevin, we will definitely take a look at it, I promise. Especially since it's your birthday, your birthday. But I can't make any guarantees, because I have never underwritten a deal with Barbados, and I would have no idea what I'm trying to wrap my mind around, but we will see if we can figure it out. Maybe that would be like half the half the fun. KBG, you don't need to apologize, man. We were talking about tariffs earlier with with H M, right? I mean, that's probably one of the reasons as to why H M is struggling, right? Because they're based in Europe. They're getting their stuff manufactured in Asia. There's, you know, tariffs all over the place. Man Jim is saying all those things require a ton of speculative money and demand, no, they don't, not at all. Right, like I said, very opinionated emuls. So you guys can attack my attack my approach, however much you want, I've got the response. So look, here's the thing, it's not speculative whatsoever. If I go out and I find a multifamily developer with affordable housing credits or something like that, like, we can build a whole bunch of multifamily Now, part of that is going to be speculative. The other piece, though, is there is a massive amount of demand for affordable housing. There's a massive amount of demand for apartments and condo living. And think about how cool of a community that could be if you get to go live where you know all of this other all of these amenities are right? Everybody would want to be there, right? And so the multifamily part, sure, I'll give you that. Maybe that's a little bit speculative, but after that, going out like you build the parking garage because of the multifamily, now you can start eliminating some of the parking that's on site. So go out to Chick fil A and see if they want to take an out parcel. You can sign these leases ahead of time and do a build to suit instead of having to, you know, just go and build something and then hope they come. You can get real, like you can do pre leasing. You can do all sorts of things that make this not very speculative. People just don't do it because it requires work. And most people that are investing in shopping centers today, or, I'm sorry, malls today don't really want to do that. They kind of want to just collect the cash flow. You know what I mean? Kvg, saying, I love your opinions on malls has been the biggest confusing question I've had for the past two years. So West malls, more strips? Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, if you look at like, what's going on in Florida and some of these other areas, like, you've got these really cool like in. Door, outdoor malls that have green space, you know, parking garages, office, hotel, Convention Center, apartments, whatever you gotta you just got. It's, I think, really the point that I'm making, if I wanted to condense it all down, is that they're single use today, and they need to be mixed use, all right. So there we have it. For this week's office hours, I've got to get to the hotel and do a site tour. Appreciate you guys for joining us. Join me every week, Tuesday, 8:30am Central Standard Time To learn more about what's going on in the market and commercial real estate. You can jump in and ask your questions. Thank you all for everybody who jumped in today. This was a great discussion. I really appreciate you all for doing that, and we will see y'all next time this episode of the commercial real estate investor podcast is brought to you by my cre accelerator mastermind, where you'll get access to my step by step investment blueprint, essentially a library of resources on how to invest in commercial real estate, you'll get connected to a supportive community of other commercial real estate investors that are doing projects just like you. You'll get personalized coaching and feedback from me every step of the way. Go to www.crecentral.com to learn more you.